When analyzing the performance of rewards programs, it's worth asking a simple question: are you targeting the right shoppers? A Harvard Business Review study points to a smarter strategy — one that goes beyond past spend and looks at where shoppers actually live in relation to your store and your competitors.
Determine high-value shoppers based on where they live
Most grocers target shoppers based on historical spend, and that remains a powerful lever. But layering in a shopper's literal path to purchase — the route they take to your store — reveals another high-value group: shoppers who are vulnerable to competitors along the way. A physical address is all you need to start identifying them.
Shoppers who live near your store with few competitors nearby will only marginally lift your rewards program. Shoppers who pass several competing banners on the way to your door, on the other hand, are the ones a well-timed offer can swing — and they're the ones a rewards program should be working hardest to keep.
Why location vulnerability beats spend alone
According to Harvard Business Review, emails targeted to top-spending shoppers lifted rewards program enrollment by 6.1% — but those shoppers kept their spend roughly flat afterward. Shoppers enrolled based on location vulnerability told a very different story: they grew their spend at the store by 45%. That's the difference between rewarding loyalty you already had and creating loyalty that wasn't there before.
Never ignore your top shoppers
Location vulnerability is a powerful layer, not a replacement. Top shoppers often account for 12–15% of transactions and 50–60% of sales. Enrolling and protecting them is non-negotiable. The winning approach blends spend history, behavior, and geography so every shopper gets the message most likely to keep them coming back.
Many independent grocers already sit on the data they need — mailer lists, addresses, purchase history. The opportunity is turning that data into actionable insight: who's most likely to churn, who's vulnerable to a nearby competitor, and who's ready for a deeper relationship.
Regain control of the conversation
Once you know who to talk to, digitize how you talk to them. It lowers marketing spend and lifts conversion at the same time. SMS is a standout channel: 95% of texts are opened within three minutes, and more than half of consumers say they're very likely to opt in to SMS promotions from local businesses — including 21% more likely to opt in to a local store than a national chain.
Inside the AppCard Management Suite (AMS), Pinky AI combines spend data, basket behavior, and shopper geography to surface the right offer for the right shopper at the right moment — across app, email, SMS, and the lane. That's how independent grocers turn a rewards program into a real growth engine.